Some fortunate or unfortunate individuals in Egypt and India were subjected to the test – only it was not a test, but a real internet collapse which took place on February 5, 2008. This issue raises the question: how dependent are we on the Internet nowadays?

In order to examine the issue, let us first analyse the reality of the Internet today, and specifically what occurred on February 5th of this year to see how vulnerable we really are. In this incident, there were 2 major hubs connecting Europe with Egypt, and subsequently, Egypt with India which were disabled. These hubs run through fibre optic cables which are located under the sea. What actually happened is that these cables were “cut” and so any data transmissions going from Egypt to India, were effectively re-routed.

It is interesting to note how network operators first immediately responded. All data transmissions were immediately reversed to run East instead of West, allowing Egypt and India to “get connected” through another major connection somewhere in East Asia.

Under normal circumstances, underwater sea cables are vulnerable to these types of service cuts, especially in the wake of an earthquake. That is why there are normally more than two or three cables servicing the same region – to ensure service can be immediately restored or re-routed using the other cables. However, in this case, there are only 3 cables connecting Europe with Egypt and India. All three are located near Alexandria, Egypt.

The underlying vulnerability in this case stems from the existence of only 3 cables. This is in effect, what experts call a “choke point”. What is interesting to note, however, in this case, is that the cuts are a complete mystery. There were no ships in the region within the time frame of the outage, and none are authorised to enter these waters – which are considered restricted areas.

Aside from technical vulnerability there are other issues which could effectively lead to the collapse of the Internet. European officials warned member countries just this week, that they have been slow to adapt to the new Internet hardware, known as ipv6 (Internet Protocol Version 6). If member countries do not comply, the old joke about having read all the pages of the Internet could become a reality.

By 2011, all of the potential ip addresses or website combinations will have run out. This is why the conversion to the new ipv6 is so important. Under current conditions, this could lead to a breakdown of transmission and a crowding effect of data transmissions which could literally block the system entirely.

The warning issued this week is reminiscent of the famous Millennium Bug, which effectively turned out to be a non-issue, but helped a lot of computer consultants make millions on the so-called Y2K compliance software and testing. The clear and present danger of an Internet collapse could effectively eliminate 30% of all communications around the world. Aside from the psychological effect of not being able to use the internet, how would your life be affected in real terms? How would it affect the way you do your work? When the Internet collapses, we will begin to analyse what went wrong, but at that very moment, we will begin to understand the real power of the Internet.

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